Comparative characterization of risk factors and risk mapping of dengue transmission in Colombo and Kandy districts of Sri Lanka
Postgraduate student:
Mr. N.W.B.A.L. Udayanga, Research Assistant/M.Phil (extending to Ph.D.) Student, Molecular Medicine Unit, Faculty of Medicine, University of Kelaniya, Ragama, Sri Lanka.
Supervisors:
Prof. W. Abeyewickreme - Dept. of Parasitology and Molecular Medicine Unit, Faculty of Medicine, University of Kelaniya.
Dr. M.C.M Iqbal - Institute of Fundamental Studies, Kandy.
Dr. P.A.D.H.N. Gunathilaka - Biotechnology Unit, Industrial Technology Institute, Colombo 7.
Prof. U.S. Amarasinghe - Dept. of Zoology and Environmental Management, Faculty of Science, University of Kelaniya.
Prof. M.M.M. Najim – Vice-Chancellor, University of South Eastern.
Dr. M.C.M Iqbal - Institute of Fundamental Studies, Kandy.
Dr. P.A.D.H.N. Gunathilaka - Biotechnology Unit, Industrial Technology Institute, Colombo 7.
Prof. U.S. Amarasinghe - Dept. of Zoology and Environmental Management, Faculty of Science, University of Kelaniya.
Prof. M.M.M. Najim – Vice-Chancellor, University of South Eastern.
Objectives
General Objectives
- To characterize the dengue risks via identification of the priority risk factors that influence the emergence of dengue outbreaks.
- To develop Dengue Risk Maps for Colombo and Kandy along with a prediction model capable of predicting the emergence of dengue outbreaks to facilitate effective and efficient management of dengue outbrea
Specific Objectives
- To assess the spatial and temporal (2009 – 2016) trends of dengue incidence in Colombo and Kandy Districts.
- To identify and prioritize factors contributing to the emergence of dengue outbreaks in Colombo and Kandy Districts.
- To investigate the effect of significant socio-economic and environmental factors on dengue incidence in Colombo and Kandy Districts.
- To develop a prediction model capable of predicting the emergence of dengue outbreaks in Colombo & Kandy.
- To develop Dengue Risk Maps (DRMs) for Colombo and Kandy Districts.
- To recommend appropriate potential common and specific dengue control/ management measures for Colombo and Kandy districts.
Project Summary
Dengue has been realized to be one of the major threats to public health in more than 100 countries all over the world, including Sri Lanka. It is often considered as an emerging and re-emerging infectious disease that tend to result significant impacts on livelihoods of people living in the endemic areas of Sri Lanka. Based on the higher prevalence rates of the infection, Colombo, Gampaha and Kandy districts have been recognized as hotspots for dengue transmission in Sri Lanka. Regardless of the immense efforts taken by the relevant authorities in controlling/managing the outbreaks of dengue, the threat still seems to be active leading to a high number of confirmed dengue cases to be reported from each district throughout the recent years. The incidence and spread of dengue has been recognized to be influenced by a variety of factors such as socio-economic conditions, degree and intensity of imposed management/control actions, socio-cultural practices, environmental factors, and changes in the climate. Geo Informatics based analysis has been understood to be vital in integration of these different aspects and acquire a holistic picture, so that the influence of above factors on the spatial and temporal trends of dengue outbreaks could be recognized effectively. Therefore application of GIS has been realized to be an excellent mean for visualizing and analyzing of complicated intensive sets of epidemiological data, prevailing trends, dependencies and inter-relationships. Moreover, GIS enables the effective determination of spatial correlations between potential risk factors and the occurrence of diseases leading to the development of a prediction model which is capable of predicting the dengue outbreaks. Thus, the current study attempts to characterize the dengue transmissions in the Colombo and Kandy districts in terms of priority environmental, meteorological and socio-economic risk factors that govern the emergence of such epidemics by devising advanced spatial and temporal analytical tools of Geo Informatics. The study will also attempt to focus on the effects of dengue on livelihood transformation of people living in endemic areas, while understanding the ecological, cultural, socio-economic and biological factors related to the transmission of the disease. Dengue Risk Maps (DRMs) that attempt to stratify the study districts into different strata at the Gramaseva Niladhari Division (GND) level (based on the potential vulnerability to dengue outbreaks), are intended to be developed using Geographical Information Systems (GIS), as a prime outcome of the proposed study. Furthermore, a prediction model, which is capable of predicting the dengue outbreaks within the studied districts will also be developed. Finally, potential measures for the prevention and control of dengue will be recommended for each district on a locality basis. Therefore, the findings of the proposed study would significantly contribute to the evaluation of the efficacy of the already initiated measures of dengue control enabling to recognize limitations in the management approaches. Furthermore the recognition of the high risk areas and potential time frames of future disease outbreaks, would significantly aid the management planning ensuring the effective controlling of the dengue emergence in the above specified districts.
Publications from the ongoing study:
Peer-reviewed abstracts
Dengue has been realized to be one of the major threats to public health in more than 100 countries all over the world, including Sri Lanka. It is often considered as an emerging and re-emerging infectious disease that tend to result significant impacts on livelihoods of people living in the endemic areas of Sri Lanka. Based on the higher prevalence rates of the infection, Colombo, Gampaha and Kandy districts have been recognized as hotspots for dengue transmission in Sri Lanka. Regardless of the immense efforts taken by the relevant authorities in controlling/managing the outbreaks of dengue, the threat still seems to be active leading to a high number of confirmed dengue cases to be reported from each district throughout the recent years. The incidence and spread of dengue has been recognized to be influenced by a variety of factors such as socio-economic conditions, degree and intensity of imposed management/control actions, socio-cultural practices, environmental factors, and changes in the climate. Geo Informatics based analysis has been understood to be vital in integration of these different aspects and acquire a holistic picture, so that the influence of above factors on the spatial and temporal trends of dengue outbreaks could be recognized effectively. Therefore application of GIS has been realized to be an excellent mean for visualizing and analyzing of complicated intensive sets of epidemiological data, prevailing trends, dependencies and inter-relationships. Moreover, GIS enables the effective determination of spatial correlations between potential risk factors and the occurrence of diseases leading to the development of a prediction model which is capable of predicting the dengue outbreaks. Thus, the current study attempts to characterize the dengue transmissions in the Colombo and Kandy districts in terms of priority environmental, meteorological and socio-economic risk factors that govern the emergence of such epidemics by devising advanced spatial and temporal analytical tools of Geo Informatics. The study will also attempt to focus on the effects of dengue on livelihood transformation of people living in endemic areas, while understanding the ecological, cultural, socio-economic and biological factors related to the transmission of the disease. Dengue Risk Maps (DRMs) that attempt to stratify the study districts into different strata at the Gramaseva Niladhari Division (GND) level (based on the potential vulnerability to dengue outbreaks), are intended to be developed using Geographical Information Systems (GIS), as a prime outcome of the proposed study. Furthermore, a prediction model, which is capable of predicting the dengue outbreaks within the studied districts will also be developed. Finally, potential measures for the prevention and control of dengue will be recommended for each district on a locality basis. Therefore, the findings of the proposed study would significantly contribute to the evaluation of the efficacy of the already initiated measures of dengue control enabling to recognize limitations in the management approaches. Furthermore the recognition of the high risk areas and potential time frames of future disease outbreaks, would significantly aid the management planning ensuring the effective controlling of the dengue emergence in the above specified districts.
Publications from the ongoing study:
Peer-reviewed abstracts
- Udayanga, N.W.B.A.L, Gunathilaka, P.A.D.H.N., Iqbal, M.C.M., Kusumawathie, P.H.D, Najim, M.M.M., Amarasinghe, U.S. and Abeyewickreme W., 2015. Demographical Characterization of Dengue Infected Patients in Akurana Medial Officer of Health Area, Central Province of Sri Lanka. IN: Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Multidisciplinary Approaches-2015, 11th & 12th of September, 2015, University of Sri Jayawardnapura, Sri Lanka. pp. 53.
- Udayanga, N.W.B.A.L, Gunathilaka, P.A.D.H.N., Iqbal, M.C.M., Kusumawathie, P.H.D, Najim, M.M.M., Amarasinghe, U.S. and Abeyewickreme W., 2015. Evaluation of the Spatial and Temporal Trends of Dengue Outbreaks in Gampola, Central Province, Sri Lanka. IN: Proceedings of iPURSE – 2015, 5th & 6th November 2015, University of Peradeniya, Sri Lanka (Accepted).
- Udayanga, N.W.B.A.L., Gunathilaka, P.A.D.H.N., Iqbal, M.C.M., Kusumawathie, P.H.D, Najim, M.M.M., Amarasinghe, U.S. and Abeyewickreme W., 2015. Evaluation of the Spatial and Temporal Trends of Dengue Outbreaks in Akurana, Central province, Sri Lanka. IN: Proceedings of the 71st Annual Sessions, Sri Lanka Association for the Advancement of Science (Accepted).
- Udayanga, N.W.B.A.L., Gunathilaka, P.A.D.H.N., Iqbal, M.C.M., Kusumawathie, P.H.D. and Abeyewickreme, W., 2015. Emerging Spatio-Temporal Trends in Dengue Incidence in Poojapitiya Medical Officer of Health (MOH), Central province, Sri Lanka. In: International Postgraduate Research Conference-2015, Fculty of Graduate Studies, University of Kelaniya, Kelaniya, Sri Lanka (Accepted).
- Udayanga, N.W.B.A.L., Gunathilaka, P.A.D.H.N., Iqbal, M.C.M., and Abeyewickreme, W., 2015. Emerging Trends in Dengue Incidence in Kundasale Medical Officer of Health (MOH), Central province, Sri Lanka. In: xx-2015, Industrial Technology Institute (ITI), Colombo, Sri Lanka (Accepted).
Under review
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Udayanga, N.W.B.A.L., Gunathilaka, P.A.D.H.N., Iqbal, M.C.M., Kusumawathie, P.H.D, Najim, M.M.M., Amarasinghe, U.S. and Abeyewickreme W., 2015. Geo-Informatics Based Approach for Evaluation of Trends in Dengue Outbreaks within Doluwa Medical Officer of Health (MOH), Central province, Sri Lanka. In: 5th Young Scientists Forum Symposium – 2016, Young Scientists Forum, Colombo, Sri Lanka (under review).